Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU

Arjan Lejour, Ruud de Mooij and Clem Capel

No 56, CPB Document from CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Abstract: We explore the economic implications of Turkish accession to the European Union. We focus on three main changes associated with Turkish membership: (i) accession to the internal European Market; (ii) institutional reforms in Turkey triggered by EU-membership; and (iii) migration in response to the free movement of workers.Overall, the macroeconomic implications for EU countries are small but positive, through cheaper imports and the benefits from trade creation. Dutch exports increase by around 20% (550 million euro). Turkey experiences larger economic gains than the EU: consumption per capita is estimated to rise by about 4% as a result of accession to the internal market and free movement of labour.If Turkey would succeed in reforming its domestic institutions in response to EU-membership, economic growth in Turkey could increase more. In particular, tentative estimates suggest that consumption per capita in Turkey could rise by an additional 9%. These benefits would spill over to the EU. For instance, Dutch exports to Turkey would rise by another 1.8 billion euro and income by 500 million euro.

JEL-codes: F13 F15 F22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/publicaties ... ish-accession-eu.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpb:docmnt:56

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CPB Document from CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().