Public Debt, Growth, And Stabilization In Tunisia: A New Narrative for a Structural Reform Agenda

Leila Baghdadi and Moez Labidi

No 2310, FDL Policy Notes from CEPREMAP

Abstract: This paper assesses debt sustainability in Tunisia using the Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA). We construct three hypothetical scenarios (A, B and C) over the period 2023-2027. The first two scenarios are called Business as usual approaches. In Scenario A, we assume that Tunisia will continue the same path as in the past three years, without an IMF agreement. In scenario B, Tunisia reaches an agreement with the IMF. However, the lack of considerable progress on the reform agenda causes the ending of the IMF agreement. The last one (Scenario C) is a proactive reform scenario. We conclude that “business as usual†approach (scenario A and B) cannot guarantee neither economic resilience nor debt sustainability. There is an urgent need for a broader approach to debt sustainability with reforms, similar to Scenario C, that would lead to resilience toward both economic and non-economic shocks.

Keywords: Debt sustainability; potential growth; climate change; structural reforms (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2023-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://findevlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FDL_ERF_Tunisia_Paper.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2310

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in FDL Policy Notes from CEPREMAP Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Martin Kessler ().