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The Probability of Legislative Shirking: Estimation and Validation

Serguei Kaniovski () and David Stadelmann

CREMA Working Paper Series from Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA)

Abstract: We introduce a binomial mixture model for estimating the probability of legislative shirking. The estimated probability strongly correlates with the observed frequency of shirking obtained by matching parliamentary roll-call votes with the will of the median voter revealed in national referenda on identical legislative proposals. Since our estimation method requires the roll-call votes as sole input, it can be used even if the will of the median voter is unknown.

Keywords: binomial mixture model; legislative shirking; referenda (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-pol
Date: 2015-10
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