The Role of Trader Positions in Carbon Market Forecasting

Maria Mansanet-Bataller (), Fernando Palao () and Ángel Pardo ()
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Maria Mansanet-Bataller: Université Marie et Louis Pasteur, CRESE, F-25000 Besançon, France
Fernando Palao: Department of Internal Audit, Caixa Bank, Madrid, Spain
Ángel Pardo: Department of Financial Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Valencia, Spain

No 2025-02, Working Papers from CRESE

Abstract: This study examines the positions of carbon traders in the European Carbon Futures Market and their predictive power, revealing distinct roles among participants. Investment Firms and Credit Institutions predominantly take short positions, serving as liquidity providers for Compliance Entities and Other Non-financial participants, who mainly hold long positions. Correlation analysis shows that as the number of entities grows, carbon volatility decreases or remains stable, but never increases. In the short term, trader positions have no impact on carbon returns or the bid-ask spread. However, shifts in the net positions of Investment Firms and Credit Institutions and Compliance Entities and Other Non-financial traders increase carbon market volatility over the following two weeks. Finally, while the net positions of Investment Funds and Other Financial Institutions significantly forecast long-term carbon returns, Compliance Entities and Other Non-financial participants offer no predictive insight, despite their considerable compliance-driven market activity.

Keywords: Commitments of Traders reports; EUA; EU ETS; price; volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C73 D43 L13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2025-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
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