A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality

Graham Turner ()

No 2008-09, Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion (SEED) Working Paper Series from CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems

Abstract: In 1972, the Club of Rome’s infamous report “The Limits to Growth” (Meadows et al., 1972) presented some challenging scenarios for global sustainability, based on a system dynamics computer model to simulate the interactions of five global economic subsystems, namely: population, food production, industrial production, pollution, and consumption of non-renewable natural resources. Contrary to popular belief, The Limits to Growth scenarios by the team of analysts from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology did not predict world collapse by the end of the 20th Century. This paper focuses on a comparison of recently collated historical data for 1970–2000 with scenarios presented in the Limits to Growth. The analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compares favorably with key features of a business-as-usual scenario called the “standard run” scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st Century. The data does not compare well with other scenarios involving comprehensive use of technology or stabilizing behaviour and policies. The results indicate the particular importance of understanding and controlling global pollution.

Keywords: integrated global model; limits to growth; scenarios; data comparison; model validation; collapse; pollution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q01 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2008-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-his
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (100)

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