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Asymmetry in government bond returns

Daisuke Nagakura (), Lena Mareen Korber and Ippei Fujiwara

AJRC Working Papers from Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: Is there asymmetry in the distribution of government bond returns in developed countries? Can asymmetries be predicted using financial and macroeconomic variables? To answer the first question, we provide evidence for asymmetry in government bond returns in particular for short maturities. This finding has important implications for modelling and forecasting government bond returns. For example, widely used models for yield curve analysis such as the affine term structure model assume symmetrically distributed innovations. To answer the second question, we find that liquidity in government bond markets predicts the coefficient of skewness with a positive sign, meaning that the probability of a large and negative excess return is more likely in a less liquid market. In addition, a positive realized return is associated with a negative coefficient of skewness, or a small probability of a large andnegative return in the future.

JEL-codes: G10 G12 E43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Journal Article: Asymmetry in government bond returns (2013) Downloads
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Working Paper: Asymmetry in Government Bond Returns (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: Asymmetry in Government Bond Returns (2013) Downloads
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