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Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior

Osea Giuntella (), Lorenzo Rotunno () and Luca Stella ()
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Luca Stella: Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

No def100, DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza from Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE)

Abstract: Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to trade on the fertility and marital behavior of German workers. We find that individuals working in sectors that were more affected by import competition from Eastern Europe and suffered worse labor market outcomes were less likely to have children. In contrast, workers in sectors that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated and married men, and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (extensive margin). While among workers exposed to import competition there is evidence of some fertility postponement, we find a significant reduction of completed fertility. There is instead little evidence of any significant effect on marital behavior.

Keywords: International Trade; Labor Market Outcomes; Fertility; Marriage. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 F16 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 61
Date: 2021-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-int and nep-lab
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http://dipartimenti.unicatt.it/economia-finanza-def100.pdf First version, 2021 (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior (2021) Downloads
Working Paper: Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior (2021) Downloads
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