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On double periodic non-homogeneous poisson processes

José Garrido and Yi Lu

DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa

Abstract: Non-homogenous Poisson processes with periodic claim intensity rate are proposed as the claim counting process of risk theory. We introduce a doubly periodic Poisson model with short and long term trends, illustrated by a double-beta intensity function. Here periodicity does not repeat the exact same short term pattern every year, but lets its peak intensity vary over a longer period. This model reflects periodic environments like those forming hurricanes, in alternating El Niño/La Niña years. The properties of the model are discussed in detail.

Date: 2002-10
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