ARIMA models, the steady state of economic variables and their estimation

Daniel Peña and Antoni Espasa

UC3M Working papers. Economics from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía

Abstract: This paper presents a procedure to breakdown the forecast for a base period t of an ARIMA model in terms of its and transitory components. The former is an estimate equilibrium level or steady state path of the e corresponding economic variable and the latter describes the approach towards the permanent componente within the permanent component a distinction is made between the factors which depend on the initial conditions of the system, and those which are deterministic.

Keywords: Long; Term; Growth; Seasonal; Components; Trends; Forecasting; function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1991-02
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cte:werepe:2760

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