Trends in temperature data: micro-foundations of their nature

María Dolores Gadea Rivas and Andrey Ramos
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Jesus Gonzalo

UC3M Working papers. Economics from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía

Abstract: Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or is a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact and forecasting studies of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the nature of trends in GAT building on the analysis of individual temperature grids. Our 'micro-founded' evidence suggests that GAT is stationary around a non-linear deterministic trend in the form of a linear function with a one-period structural break. This break can beattributed to a combination of individual grid breaks and the standard aggregation method under acceleration in global warming. We illustrate our findings using simulations.

Keywords: Trends; Unit; roots; Structural; breaks; Temperature; Aggregation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-12-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env and nep-ets
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Trends in temperature data: Micro-foundations of their nature (2024)
Working Paper: Trends in Temperature Data: Micro-foundations of Their Nature (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cte:werepe:39045

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