The redistributive effects of pandemics: evidence on the Spanish flu

Joan Rosés
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Sergi Basco and Jordi Domenech

IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of a pandemic in a developing economy. Measured by excess deaths relative to the historical trend, the 1918 influenza in Spain was one of the most intense in Western Europe. However, aggregate output and consumption were only mildly affected. In this paper we assess the impact of the flu by exploiting within-country variationin "excess deaths" and we focus on the returns to factors of production. Our main result is that the effect of flu-related "excess deaths" on real wages is large, negative, and shortlived.The effects are heterogeneous across occupations, from none to a 15 per cent decline, concentrated in 1918. The negative effects are exacerbated in more urbanized provinces. In addition, we do not find effects of the flu on the returns to capital. Indeed, neither dividends nor real estate prices (houses and land) were negatively affected by flu-related increases inmortality. Our interpretation is that the Spanish Flu represented a negative demand shock that was mostly absorbed by workers, especially in more urbanized regions.

Keywords: Pandemics; Spanish; flu; Real; wages; Returns; to; capital (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 I00 N10 N30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-his, nep-mac and nep-ure
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The redistributive effects of pandemics: Evidence on the Spanish flu (2021)
Working Paper: The redistributive effects of pandemics: evidence on the Spanish flu (2021)
Working Paper: The Redistributive Effects of Pandemics: Evidence on the Spanish Flu (2020)
Working Paper: The Redistributive Effects of Pandemics: Evidence of the Spanish Flu (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cte:whrepe:30465

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