Forecasting time series with sieve bootstrap

Andrés Modesto Alonso Fernández, Daniel Peña and Juan Romo

DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística

Abstract: In this paper we consider bootstrap methods for constructing nonparametric prediction intervals for a general class of linear processes. Our approach uses the sieve bootstrap procedure of Biihlmann (1997) based on residual resampling from an autoregressive approximation to the given process. We show that the sieve bootstrap provides consistent estimators of the conditional distribution of future values given the observed data, assuming that the order of the autoregressive approximation increases with the sample size at a suitable rate and some restrictions about polynomial decay of the coefficients ~ j t:o of the process MA(oo) representation. We present a Monte Carlo study comparing the finite sample properties of the sieve bootstrap with those of alternative methods. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the proposed method with real data examples.

Keywords: Sieve; boots; trap; Prediction; intervals; Time; series; Linear; processes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000-02
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cte:wsrepe:9858

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