Analytic and bootstrap approximations of prediction errors under a multivariate fay-herriot model

Domingo Morales, Laureano Santamaría, Wenceslao González Manteiga, Maria J. Lombardía and Isabel Molina

DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística

Abstract: A Multivariate Fay-Herriot model is used to aid the prediction of small area parameters of dependent variables with sample data aggregated to area level. The empirical best linear unbiased predictor of the parameter vector is used, and an approximation of the elements of the mean cross product error matrix is obtained by an extension of the results of Prasad and Rao (1990) to the multiparameter case. Three different bootstrap approximations of those elements are introduced, and a simulation study is developed in order to compare the efficiency of all presented approximations, including a comparison under lack of normality. Further, the number of replications needed for the bootstrap procedures to get stabilized are studied.

Date: 2005-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-ets
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