A methodology for population projections: an application to Spain

Julio Rodríguez
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Daniel Peña

DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística

Abstract: This paper looks at projections for the Spanish population by sex and age for the period of 2005 to 2050. These were carried out using forecasts for birth and mortality rates, and migration. These rates are calculated using two main sources of information. First, a multivariate time series model was applied for the series of variables from the 1970 to 2001 period. Second a model was estimated for life expectancy and for a synthetic fertility index. Both sources of information were combined to obtain the forecasts for the rates. Immigration rates are predicted by assuming three possible scenarios based on the maximum proportion that immigrants will represent in the Spanish population. With these variables a structure of ages and sex for the Spanish population is estimated using a cohort component model.

Keywords: Population; projections; Time; series; Factorial; model; Bootstrap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-09
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws084512

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