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Bootstrap forecast of multivariate VAR models without using the backward representation

Diego Fresoli, Esther Ruiz and Lorenzo Pascual

DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística

Abstract: In this paper, we show how to simplify the construction of bootstrap prediction densities in multivariate VAR models by avoiding the backward representation. Bootstrap prediction densities are attractive because they incorporate the parameter uncertainty a any particular assumption about the error distribution. What is more, the construction of densities for more than one-step unknown asymptotically. The main advantage of the new simple without loosing the good performance of bootstrap procedures. Furthermore, by avoiding a backward representation, its asymptotic validity can be proved without relying on the assumption of Gaussian errors as proposed in this paper can be implemented to obtain prediction densities in models without a backward representation as, for example, models with MA components or GARCH disturbances. By comparing the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure with those of alternatives, we show that nothing is lost when using it. Finally, we implement the procedure to obtain prediction regions for US quarterly future inflation, unemployment and GDP growth

Keywords: Non-Gaussian; VAR; models; Prediction; cubes; Prediction; density; Prediction; regions; Prediction; ellipsoids; Resampling; methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-for
Date: 2011-10
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed

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