Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports

Andrew Rose

No GRU_2017_003, GRU Working Paper Series from City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit

Abstract: I investigate whether countries that use unconventional monetary policy (UMP) experience export booms. I use a popular gravity model of trade which requires neither the exogeneity of UMP, nor instrumental variables for UMP. In practice, countries that engage in UMP experience a drop in exports vis-à-vis countries that are not engaged in such policies, holding other things constant. Quantitative easing is associated with exports that are about 10% lower to countries not engaged in UMP; this amount is significantly different from zero and similar to the effect of negative nominal interest rates. Thus there is no evidence that countries have gained export markets through unconventional monetary policy; any currency wars launched have been lost.

Keywords: quantitative; easing; negative; nominal; interest; trade; gravity; bilateral; data; empirical (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E58 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2017-03-27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-int, nep-mac and nep-mon
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https://www.cb.cityu.edu.hk/ef/doc/GRU/WPS/GRU%232 ... drew%20K_%20Rose.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports (2021)
Working Paper: Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports (2018)
Working Paper: Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2017_003

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