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The First Stage in Hendry’s Reduction Theory Revisited

Genaro Sucarrat

No 2006041, Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) from Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques

Abstract: The reduction theory of David F. Hendry provides a comprehensive probabilistic framework for the analysis and classification of the reductions associated with empirical econometric models. However, it is unable to provide an analysis on the same underlying probability space of the first reduction - and hence the subsequent reductions - given a commonplace theory of social reality, namely the joint hypotheses that the course of history is indeterministic, that history does not repeat itsself, and that the future depends on the past. As a solution this essay proposes that the elements of the underlying outcome space in Hendry’s theory are interpreted as indeterministic worlds made up of historically inherited particulars.

Keywords: Theory of recution; DGP, Possible worlds; Measurement error; Probabilistic causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B40 C50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-hpe
Date: 2006-09-01
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