Should prevention campaigns disclose the transmission rate of HIV/AIDS? Theory and evidence from Burundi

Olivier Sterck

No 2010042, LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES from Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)

Abstract: Among non-specialists, the estimates of the HIV/AIDS transmission rate are generally upwardly biased. This overestimation may be perceived as a godsend, as it increases the incentives to have protected sexual relationships. However, a pernicious effect may counterbalance this positive effect. Combined with the overestimation of the transmission rate, an occasional unprotected sexual encounter may induce the feeling that “the die is cast”, and hence lead to a permanent neglect of condom use. In this paper, I construct a model that reflects such insidious and unexpected behavior. I calculate that the optimal transmission rate to be disclosed for safer sexual practices ranges between 5 % and 24.9 %.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS; transmission rate; prevention; risk perception; condom; Burundi (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42
Date: 2010-11-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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