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The Impact of Weather Anomalies on Migration in sub-Saharan Africa

Luca Marchiori, Jean-François Maystadt () and Ingmar Schumacher

No 2011034, Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) from Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa. Theoretically, we show how weather anomalies induce rural-urban migration that subsequently triggers international migration. We distinguish two transmission channels, an amenity and an economic geography channel. Empirically, based on annual, cross-country panel data for sub-Saharan Africa, our results suggest that weather anomalies increased internal and international migration through both channels. We estimate that temperature and rainfall anomalies caused a total displacement of 5 million people in net terms during the period 1960-2000, i.e. a minimum of 130’000 people every year. Further weather anomalies, based on IPCC projections on climate change, could lead to an additional annual displacement of 11 million people by the end of the 21st century.

Keywords: International migration; urbanization; rural-urban migration; weather anomalies; sub-Saharan Africa. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 Q54 R13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-agr and nep-mig
Date: 2011-10-10
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Journal Article: The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa (2012) Downloads
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