In Search of Lost Peace: The Local Effects of Peacekeepers on Conflict Dynamics in Africa

Jing-Rong Zeng
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Jing-Rong Zeng: Paris School of Economics

No 2026016, LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES from Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)

Abstract: Can international peacekeeping produce durable peace? I study United Nations peacekeeping deployments across Africa from 1994 to 2020 using a geocoded panel of peacekeeper locations and conflict events. Because local deployment is non-absorbing and varies over time, I use difference-in-differences estimators that accommodate heterogeneous treatment effects and changes in treatment status. Peacekeeper deployment is followed by a large and persistent decline in the probability of local conflict. By contrast, conflict-related fatalities decline initially but increase at longer horizons, revealing a divergence between the incidence and severity of violence. The longer-run increase in fatalities is concentrated in state-based conflict, while the initial decline is more pronounced for one-sided violence. I find limited evidence of sustained improvements in nighttime lights. Complementary evidence from MONUSCO’s 2013 offensive mandate in the Democratic Republic of the Congo shows lower total and non-civilian-targeted fatalities in locations with peacekeeper bases. The findings show that the effects of peacekeeping differ across dimensions of violence and evolve substantially over time.

Keywords: Peacekeeping; Conflict Resolution; Nighttime Lights; Event Study; Dynamic Treatment Effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 D74 F53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-09-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ctl:louvir:2026016

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