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EMU, Exchange Rates and the International Monetary System

Peter Kenen

No 1993022, Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) from Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)

Abstract: This paper asks how EMU will affect foreign-exchange markets,the demands for various key currencies, the behaviour of exchanges rates among them, and policy coordination. The advent of the Ecu as the single currency of the EC may reduce the vehicle role of the dollar in foreign-exchange markets. Yet the share of the Ecu in global reserves may be lower initially than the sum of the shares of the presentEC currencies. The private demand for Ecu, domestic and foreign, may also be smaller initially than the demands for the present EC currencies. By helping to unify EC capital markets, however, advent of the Ecu may raise the flow demand for Ecu-denominated claims, causing the Ecu to appreciate in the early years of EMU. Finally, EMU may not help Europe to speak with one voice in international negotiations and may thus interfere with policy coordination.

Pages: 25
Date: 1993-03-01
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