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Evaluating Historical Episodes using Shock Decompositions in the DSGE Model

Zamid Aligishiev (), Michael Ben-Gad () and Joseph Pearlman ()

Working Papers from Department of Economics, City University London

Abstract: We present alternative methods for calculating and interpreting the influence of exogenous shocks on historical episodes within the context of DSGE models. We show analytically why different methods for calculating shock decompositions can generate conflicting interpretations of the same historical episodes. We illustrate this point using an extended version of Drautzburg and Uhlig's (2015) model of the U.S. economy, focusing on the periods 1964-1966, 1979-1987, 2007-2008 and 2016-2018. We argue that the best method for analyzing particular episodes is one which isolates the influence of the shocks during the period under consideration and where the initial conditions represent the system's distance from steady state at the beginning of the episode.

Date: 2020-04-21
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