Managing Democratization Transitions: A Dynamic Model of Ideological Diffusion, Institutional Reform, and Political Stabilization

Heng-Fu Zou ()

No 764, CEMA Working Papers from China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics

Abstract: This paper develops a dynamic and mathematically rigorous model of democratization as a controlled process of ideological diffusion and institutional reform. Drawing on fluid dynamics and optimal control theory, we model reform momentum and ideological density as coupled partial differential equations, influenced by damping, pressure, and stochastic shocks. The goal is to minimize the total social cost of democratization through time- and space dependent interventions. We derive adjoint-based feedback laws and simulate both deterministic and stochastic scenarios, showing how localized, adaptive control can steer reform efficiently and stabilize transitions. Case studies - South Korea, Taiwan, Eastern Europe - demonstrate the model's historical relevance and policy potential. The framework offers new tools for guiding political transitions under uncertainty.

Keywords: democratization; optimal control; ideological diffusion; PDE systems; political transition; stochastic shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages
Date: 2025-05-16
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