Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

From Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA.
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2472: SLIM: Stochastic Learning and Inference in Overidentified Models

Xiaohong Chen, Min Seong Kim, Sokbae Lee, Myung Hwan Seo and Myunghyun Song

2470: Efficient Difference-in-Differences and Event Study Estimators

Xiaohong Chen, Pedro SantÕAnna and Haitian Xie

2469: Quantile-Optimal Policy Learning under Unmeasured Confounding

Zhongren Chen, Siyu Chen, Zhengling Qi, Xiaohong Chen and Zhuoran Yang

2468: Worker Rights in Collective Bargaining

Benjamin Arold, Elliott Ash, W. Bentley MacLeod and Suresh Naidu

2467: Local Overidentification and Efficiency Gains in Modern Causal Inference and Data Combination

Xiaohong Chen and Haitian Xie

2466: Safely Exploring Novel Actions in Recommender Systems via Deployment-Efficient Policy Learning

Haruka Kiyohara, Yusuke Narita, Yuta Saito, Kei Tateno and Takuma Udagawa

2465: Disclosure and the Pace of Drug Development

Colleen Cunnningham, Florian Ederer, Charles Hodgson and Zhichun Wang

2464: Edgeworth Expansions in Curved Cross Section Autoregression

Peter Phillips

2463: Optimal Estimation In A Multicointegrated System

Igor Kheifets and Peter Phillips

2462: The Changing Nature of International Trade and Its Implications for Development

Pinelopi Goldberg and Michele Ruta

2461: College Application Mistakes and the Design of Information Policies at Scale

Tom‡s Larroucau, Ignacio Rios, Ana•s Fabre and Christopher Neilson

2460: Large-Scale Curve Time Series with Common Stochastic Trends

Degui Li, Yuning Li and Peter Phillips

2459: Growth with Firm-to-Firm Trade

Samuel Kortum and Bernardo Ribeiro

2458: Pipeline vs. Choice: The Global Gender Gap in STEM Applications

Isaac Ahimbisibwe, Adam Altjmed, Georgy Artemov, Andres Barrios-Fernández, Aspasia Bizopoulou, Martti Kaila, Jin-Tan Liu, Rigissa Megalokonomou, JosŽ Montalban, Christopher Neilson, Jintao Sun, Sebastian Otero and Xiaoyang Ye

2457: Decomposing Trends in the Gender Gap for Highly Educated Workers

Joseph Altonji, John Eric Humphries, Yagmur Yuksel and Ling Zhong

2456: Offline Contextual Bandits in the Presence of New Actions

Ren Kishimoto, Tatsuhiro Shimizu, Kazuki Kawamura, Takanori Muroi, Yusuke Narita, Yuki Sasamoto, Kei Tateno, Takuma Udagawa and Yuta Saito

2455: Order Statistics as Finite Mixtures

JosŽ-Antonio Esp’n-S‡nchez, Charles Hodgson and Kevin OÕNeill

2454: Cross Section Curve Autoregression: The Unit Root Case

Peter Phillips and Liang Jiang

2453: Selective Turnout, Voting Policy, And Partisan Bias: Evidence From Multi-Level Data

Steven Berry, Christian Cox and Philip Haile

2452: Optimal Management of Public Energy Communities: Investment Strategies and Welfare Maximization

Dirk Bergemann, Marina Bertolini, Marta Castellini, Michele Moretto and Sergio Vergalli

2451: Selection in Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives to Detect and Account for Nonresponse Bias

Deniz Dutz, Ingrid Huitfeldt, Santiago Lacouture, Magne Mogstad, Alexander Torgovitsky and Winnie van Dijk

2450: Semiparametric Learning of Integral Functionals on Submanifolds

Xiaohong Chen and Wayne Yuan Gao

2449: A Stairway to Success: How Parenting Shapes Culture and Social Stratification

Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti and Fabrizio Zilibotti

2448: Tariffs and Trade Deficits

Lorenzo Caliendo, Samuel Kortum and Fernando Parro

2448: Tariffs and Trade Deficits

Lorenzo Caliendo, Samuel Kortum and Fernando Parro

2447: Non-Discriminatory Personalized Pricing

Philipp Strack and Kai Hao Yang

2446: Complementarities in High School and College Investments

John Humphries, Juanna Schr¿ter Joensen and Gregory Veramendi

2445: The Price of Intelligence: How Should Socially-minded Firms Price and Deploy AI?

Nils Lehr and Pascual Restrepo

2444: A Dynamic Theory of Optimal Tariffs

Eduardo D‡vila, AndrŽs Rodr’guez-Clare, Andreas Schaab and Stacy Tan

2443: Scalable Targeting of Social Protection: When Do Algorithms Out-Perform Surveys and Community Knowledge?

Emily Aiken, Anik Ashraf, Joshua Blumenstock, Raymond Guiteras and Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

2442: Conviction, Incarceration, and Recidivism: Understanding the Revolving Door

John Humphries, AurŽlie Ouss, Kamelia Stavreva, Megan Stevenson and Winnie van Dijk

2441: Revisiting the Lasting Impacts of Incarceration

John Humphries, CŽcile Macaire, AurŽlie Ouss, Megan Stevenson and Winnie van Dijk

2440: Personalized Discounts and Consumer Search

Zikun Liu, Jiwoong Shin and Jidong Zhou

2439: Cross Section Curve Data Autoregression

Peter Phillips and Liang Jiang

2438: Soft-Floor Auctions: Harnessing Regret to Improve Efficiency and Revenue

Dirk Bergemann, Kevin Breuer, Peter Cramton, Jack Hirsch, Yero Ndiaye and Axel Ockenfels

2437: Forward Selection Fama-MacBeth Regression with Higher-Order Asset Pricing Factors

Nicola Borri, Denis Chetverikov, Yukun Liu and Aleh Tsyvinski

2436: The Bullwhip: Time-to-Build and Sectoral Fluctuations

Yan Leng, Ernest Liu, Yifei Ren and Aleh Tsyvinski

2435: A Geospatial Approach to Measuring Economic Activity

Anton Yang, Jianwei Ai and Costas Arkolakis

2434: Firm Selection and Growth in Carbon Offset Markets: Evidence from the Clean Development Mechanism

Qiaoyi Chen, Nicholas Ryan and Yi Xu

2433: Bubble Mitigation Policies: Counterfactual Analysis and Treatment Effect Inference

Ye Chen, Peter Phillips and Shuping Shi

2432: Semiparametric Cointegrating Rank Selection for Curved Cross Section Time Series

Peter Phillips

2431: Robust Inference for Time Varying Predictability: A Sieve-IVX Approach

Nan Liu, Yanbo Liu, Peter Phillips and Yajie Zhang

2430: Speculative Bubbles in the Recent AI Boom: Nasdaq and the Magnificent Seven

Rerotlhe Basele, Peter Phillips and Shuping Shi

2429: Bidding with Budgets: Algorithmic and Data-Driven Bids in Digital Advertising

Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti and Nicholas Wu

2428: Multidimensional Monotonicity and Economic Applications

Frank Yang and Kai Hao Yang

2428: Multidimensional Monotonicity and Economic Applications

Frank Yang and Kai Hao Yang

2427: Intergenerational Welfare Assessments

Sergi Barcons, Eduardo D‡vila and Andreas Schaab

2426: Digital Ecosystems and Data Regulation

Andrew Rhodes, Jidong Zhou and Junjie Zhou

2425: The Economics of Large Language Models: Token Allocation, Fine Tuning, and Optimal Pricing

Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti and Alex Smolin

2424: Optimal Pricing of Cloud Services: Committed Spend under Demand Uncertainty

Dirk Bergemann and Michael Wang

2423: Robust Pricing for Cloud Computing

Dirk Bergemann and Rahul Deb

2422: U.S. Infrastructure: 1929-2023

Ray Fair

2421: Inference for Regression with Variables Generated by AI or Machine Learning

Laura Battaglia, Timothy Christensen, Stephen Hansen and Szymon Sacher

2420: Consumer-Optimal Segmentation in Multi-Product Markets

Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann and Michael Wang

2419: Entropy-Regularized Optimal Transport in Information Design

Jorge Justiniano, Andreas Kleiner, Benny Moldovanu, Martin Rumpf and Philipp Strack

2418: Data-Driven Mechanism Design: Jointly Eliciting Preferences and Information

Dirk Bergemann, Marek Bojko, Paul DŸtting, Renato Paes Leme, Haifeng Xu and Song Zuo

2418: Data-Driven Mechanism Design: Jointly Eliciting Preferences and Information

Dirk Bergemann, Marek Bojko, Paul DŸtting, Renato Paes Leme, Haifeng Xu and Song Zuo

2417: Social Status, Economic Development and Female Labor Force (Non) Participation

Kaivan Munshi and Swapnil Singh

2416: Outsourcing, Labor Market Frictions, and Employment

Mayara Felix and Michael Wong

2416: The Reallocation Effects of Domestic Outsourcing

Mayara Felix and Michael Wong

2414: Changes in Marital Sorting: Theory and Evidence from the US

Pierre-AndrŽ Chiappori, Monica Costa Dias, Costas Meghir and Hanzhe Zhang

2413: A Strategic Topology on Information Structures

Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris and Rafael Veiel

2412: Welfare Accounting

Eduardo Davila and Andreas Schaab

2411: GMM Estimation with Brownian Kernels Applied to Income Inequality Measurement

Jin Seo Cho and Peter Phillips

2410: Estimation and Inference in a Possibly Multi-cointegrated System with a Fixed Number of Instruments

Yixiao Sun, Peter Phillips and Igor Kheifets

2409: Cyclical Time Series: An Empirical Analysis of Temperatures in Central England Over Three Centuries

Liudas Giraitis, Fulvia Marotta and Peter Phillips

2408: Wealth, Marriage, and Sex Selection

Girija Borker, Jan Eeckhout, Nancy Luke, Shantidani Minz, Kaivan Munshi and Soumya Swaminathan

2407: Economic Development, Undernutrition and Diabetes

Kaivan Munshi, Swapnil Singh, Nancy Luke and Anu Oommen

2406: Community Networks, Entrepreneurship and the Process of Economic Development

Ruochen Dai, Dilip Mookherjee, Kaivan Munshi and Xiaobo Zhang

2406: Community Networks, Entrepreneurship and the Process of Economic Development

Ruochen Dai, Dilip Mookherjee, Kaivan Munshi and Xiaobo Zhang

2405: A Non-Envelope Theorem with Linearly Homogeneous Constraints

Eduardo Dávila and Andreas Schaab

2404: Direct and Indirect Taxes in Pollution Dynamics

Vladimir Smirnyagin, Aleh Tsyvinski and Xi Wu

2403: Inefficiencies of Carbon Trading Markets

Nicola Borri, Yukun Liu, Aleh Tsyvinski and Xi Wu

2402: Supply Chain Disruptions, Supplier Capital, and Financial Constraints

Ernest Liu, Yukun Liu, Vladimir Smirnyagin and Aleh Tsyvinski

2402: Supply Chain Disruptions and Supplier Capital in U.S. Firms

Ernest Liu, Vladimir Smirnyagin and Aleh Tsyvinski

2401: Inflation Expectations, Price Equations, and Fed Effects

Ray Fair

2400: Self-weighted Estimation for Local Unit Root Regression with Applications

Zhishui Hu, Nan Liu, Peter Phillips and Qiying Wang

2399: Limit Theory and Inference in Non-cointegrated Functional Coefficient Regression

Ying Wang, Peter Phillips and Yundong Tu

2398: Limit Theory of Local Polynomial Estimation in Functional Coefficient Regression

Ying Wang and Peter Phillips

2397: Teaching Financial Econometrics to Students Converting to Finance

Stan Hurn, Vance Martin, Peter Phillips and Jun Yu

2396: Labor Market Matching, Wages, and Amenities

Thibaut Lamadon, Jeremy Lise, Costas Meghir and Jean-Marc Robin

2395: Intra-Household Welfare Inequality and Household Public Goods

Pierre-AndrŽ Chiappori, Yoko Okuyama and Costas Meghir

2394: Dynamic Price Competition with Capacity Constraints

Jose Betancourt, Ali Horta su, Aniko …ry and Kevin Williams

2393: STRIDE: A Tool-Assisted LLM Agent Framework for Strategic and Interactive Decision-Making

Chuanhao Li, Runhan Yang, Tiankai Li, Milad Bafarassat, Kourosh Sharifi, Dirk Bergemann and Zhuoran Yang

2392: Approximating Choice Data by Discrete Choice Models

Yusuke Narita, Haoge Chang and Kota Saito

2391: Algorithm as Experiment: Machine Learning, Market Design, and Policy Eligibility Rules

Yusuke Narita and Kohei Yata

2390: Meritocracy and Its Discontents: Long-run Effects of Repeated School Admission Reforms

Yusuke Narita, Chiaki Moriguchi and Mari Tanaka

2389: Inference in a Stationary/Nonstationary Autoregressive Time-Varying-Parameter Model

Donald Andrews and Ming Li

2388: Personalization and Privacy Choice

Andrew Rhodes and Jidong Zhou

2387: Macroeconomics of Mental Health

Boaz Abramson, Job Boerma and Aleh Tsyvinski

2386: One Factor to Bind the Cross-Section of Returns

Nicola Borri, Denis Chetverikov, Yukun Liu and Aleh Tsyvinski

2385: Technology and the Global Economy

Jonathan Eaton and Samuel Kortum

2384: Trade and Domestic Distortions: The Case of Informality

Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Costas Meghir and Gabriel Ulyssea

2384: Trade and Domestic Distortions: The Case of Informality

Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi Goldberg, Costas Meghir and Gabriel Ulyssea

2383: Earnings Dynamics and Firm-Level Shocks

Benjamin Friedrich, Lisa Laun, Costas Meghir and Luigi Pistaferri

2382: Policy with Stochastic Hysteresis

Job Boerma, Georgii Riabov and Aleh Tsyvinski

2381: Housing Fever in Australia 2020-2023: Insights from an Econometric Thermometer

Shuping Shi and Peter Phillips

2380: Policy Evaluation with Nonlinear Trended Outcomes: COVID-19 Vaccination Rates in the US

Lynn Bergeland Morgan, Peter Phillips and Donggyu Sul

2379: Privacy Preserving Signals

Kai Hao Yang and Philipp Strack

2378: Misinterpreting Yourself

Paul Heidhues, Botond Koszegi and Philipp Strack