Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

From Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University
Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA.
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2434: Firm Selection and Growth in Carbon Offset Markets: Evidence from the Clean Development Mechanism

Qiaoyi Chen, Nicholas Ryan and Daniel Xu

2433: Bubble Mitigation Policies: Counterfactual Analysis and Treatment Effect Inference

Ye Chen, Peter Phillips and Shuping Shi

2432: Semiparametric Cointegrating Rank Selection for Curved Cross Section Time Series

Peter Phillips

2431: Robust Inference for Time Varying Predictability: A Sieve-IVX Approach

Nan Liu, Yanbo Liu, Peter Phillips and Yajie Zhang

2430: Speculative Bubbles in the Recent AI Boom: Nasdaq and the Magnificent Seven

Rerotlhe Basele, Peter Phillips and Shuping Shi

2429: Bidding with Budgets: Algorithmic and Data-Driven Bids in Digital Advertising

Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti and Nicholas Wu

2428: Multidimensional Monotonicity and Economic Applications

Frank Yang and Kai Hao Yang

2427: Intergenerational Welfare Assessments

Sergi Barcons, Eduardo D‡vila and Andreas Schaab

2426: Digital Ecosystems and Data Regulation

Andrew Rhodes, Jidong Zhou and Junjie Zhou

2425: The Economics of Large Language Models: Token Allocation, Fine Tuning, and Optimal Pricing

Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti and Alex Smolin

2424: Optimal Pricing of Cloud Services: Committed Spend under Demand Uncertainty

Dirk Bergemann and Michael Wang

2423: Robust Pricing for Cloud Computing

Dirk Bergemann and Rahul Deb

2422: U.S. Infrastructure: 1929-2023

Ray Fair

2421: Inference for Regression with Variables Generated by AI or Machine Learning

Laura Battaglia, Timothy Christensen, Stephen Hansen and Szymon Sacher

2420: Consumer-Optimal Segmentation in Multi-Product Markets

Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann and Michael Wang

2419: Entropy-Regularized Optimal Transport in Information Design

Jorge Justiniano, Andreas Kleiner, Benny Moldovanu, Martin Rumpf and Philipp Strack

2418: Data-Driven Mechanism Design: Jointly Eliciting Preferences and Information

Dirk Bergemann, Marek Bojko, Paul DŸtting, Renato Paes Leme, Haifeng Xu and Song Zuo

2418: Data-Driven Mechanism Design: Jointly Eliciting Preferences and Information

Dirk Bergemann, Marek Bojko, Paul DŸtting, Renato Paes Leme, Haifeng Xu and Song Zuo

2417: Social Status, Economic Development and Female Labor Force (Non) Participation

Kaivan Munshi and Swapnil Singh

2416: The Reallocation Effects of Domestic Outsourcing

Mayara Felix and Michael Wong

2414: Changes in Marital Sorting: Theory and Evidence from the US

Pierre-AndrŽ Chiappori, Monica Costa Dias, Costas Meghir and Hanzhe Zhang

2413: A Strategic Topology on Information Structures

Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris and Rafael Veiel

2412: Welfare Accounting

Eduardo Davila and Andreas Schaab

2411: GMM Estimation with Brownian Kernels Applied to Income Inequality Measurement

Jin Seo Cho and Peter Phillips

2410: Estimation and Inference in a Possibly Multi-cointegrated System with a Fixed Number of Instruments

Yixiao Sun, Peter Phillips and Igor Kheifets

2409: Cyclical Time Series: An Empirical Analysis of Temperatures in Central England Over Three Centuries

Liudas Giraitis, Fulvia Marotta and Peter Phillips

2408: Wealth, Marriage, and Sex Selection

Girija Borker, Jan Eeckhout, Nancy Luke, Shantidani Minz, Kaivan Munshi and Soumya Swaminathan

2407: Economic Development, Undernutrition and Diabetes

Kaivan Munshi, Swapnil Singh, Nancy Luke and Anu Oommen

2406: Community Networks, Entrepreneurship and the Process of Economic Development

Ruochen Dai, Dilip Mookherjee, Kaivan Munshi and Xiaobo Zhang

2406: Community Networks, Entrepreneurship and the Process of Economic Development

Ruochen Dai, Dilip Mookherjee, Kaivan Munshi and Xiaobo Zhang

2405: A Non-Envelope Theorem with Linearly Homogeneous Constraints

Eduardo Dávila and Andreas Schaab

2404: Direct and Indirect Taxes in Pollution Dynamics

Vladimir Smirnyagin, Aleh Tsyvinski and Xi Wu

2403: Inefficiencies of Carbon Trading Markets

Nicola Borri, Yukun Liu, Aleh Tsyvinski and Xi Wu

2402: Supply Chain Disruptions and Supplier Capital in U.S. Firms

Ernest Liu, Vladimir Smirnyagin and Aleh Tsyvinski

2401: Inflation Expectations, Price Equations, and Fed Effects

Ray Fair

2400: Self-weighted Estimation for Local Unit Root Regression with Applications

Zhishui Hu, Nan Liu, Peter Phillips and Qiying Wang

2399: Limit Theory and Inference in Non-cointegrated Functional Coefficient Regression

Ying Wang, Peter Phillips and Yundong Tu

2398: Limit Theory of Local Polynomial Estimation in Functional Coefficient Regression

Ying Wang and Peter Phillips

2397: Teaching Financial Econometrics to Students Converting to Finance

Stan Hurn, Vance Martin, Peter Phillips and Jun Yu

2396: Labor Market Matching, Wages, and Amenities

Thibaut Lamadon, Jeremy Lise, Costas Meghir and Jean-Marc Robin

2395: Intra-Household Welfare Inequality and Household Public Goods

Pierre-AndrŽ Chiappori, Yoko Okuyama and Costas Meghir

2394: Dynamic Price Competition with Capacity Constraints

Jose Betancourt, Ali Horta su, Aniko …ry and Kevin Williams

2393: STRIDE: A Tool-Assisted LLM Agent Framework for Strategic and Interactive Decision-Making

Chuanhao Li, Runhan Yang, Tiankai Li, Milad Bafarassat, Kourosh Sharifi, Dirk Bergemann and Zhuoran Yang

2392: Approximating Choice Data by Discrete Choice Models

Yusuke Narita, Haoge Chang and Kota Saito

2391: Algorithm as Experiment: Machine Learning, Market Design, and Policy Eligibility Rules

Yusuke Narita and Kohei Yata

2390: Meritocracy and Its Discontents: Long-run Effects of Repeated School Admission Reforms

Yusuke Narita, Chiaki Moriguchi and Mari Tanaka

2389: Inference in a Stationary/Nonstationary Autoregressive Time-Varying-Parameter Model

Donald Andrews and Ming Li

2388: Personalization and Privacy Choice

Andrew Rhodes and Jidong Zhou

2387: Macroeconomics of Mental Health

Boaz Abramson, Job Boerma and Aleh Tsyvinski

2386: One Factor to Bind the Cross-Section of Returns

Nicola Borri, Denis Chetverikov, Yukun Liu and Aleh Tsyvinski

2385: Technology and the Global Economy

Jonathan Eaton and Samuel Kortum

2384: Trade and Domestic Distortions: The Case of Informality

Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi Goldberg, Costas Meghir and Gabriel Ulyssea

2383: Earnings Dynamics and Firm-Level Shocks

Benjamin Friedrich, Lisa Laun, Costas Meghir and Luigi Pistaferri

2382: Policy with Stochastic Hysteresis

Job Boerma, Georgii Riabov and Aleh Tsyvinski

2381: Housing Fever in Australia 2020-2023: Insights from an Econometric Thermometer

Shuping Shi and Peter Phillips

2380: Policy Evaluation with Nonlinear Trended Outcomes: COVID-19 Vaccination Rates in the US

Lynn Bergeland Morgan, Peter Phillips and Donggyu Sul

2379: Privacy Preserving Signals

Kai Hao Yang and Philipp Strack

2378: Misinterpreting Yourself

Paul Heidhues, Botond Koszegi and Philipp Strack

2377: Taxing Externalities Without Hurting the Poor

Mallesh Pai and Philipp Strack

2376: A Unified Approach to Second and Third Degree Price Discrimination

Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann and Michael C. Wang

2375: Bidder-Optimal Information Structures in Auctions

Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann and Stephen Morris

2375: Bidder-Optimal Information Structures in Auctions

Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann and Stephen Morris

2374: An Interview Study of Pricing

Truman F. Bewley

2373: On the Alignment of Consumer Surplus and Total Surplus Under Competitive Price Discrimination

Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks and Stephen Morris

2373: On the Alignment of Consumer Surplus and Total Surplus Under Competitive Price Discrimination

Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks and Stephen Morris

2372: Managing Persuasion Robustly: The Optimality of Quota Rules

Dirk Bergemann, Tan Gan and Yingkai Li

2371: Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women

Ray C. Fair

2371: Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women

Ray C. Fair

2370: Leverage Cycle Theory of Economic Crises and Booms

John Geanakoplos

2368: Cost Based Nonlinear Pricing

Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann and Stephen Morris

2367: How Do Digital Advertising Auctions Impact Product Prices?

Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti and Nicholas Wu

2365: New asymptotics applied to functional coefficient regression and climate sensitivity analysis

Qiying Wang, Peter Phillips and Ying Wang

2364: Panel Data Models with Time-Varying Latent Group Structures

Yiren Wang, Peter Phillips and Liangjun Su

2363: Policies, Projections, and the Social Cost of Carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 Model

Lint Barrage and William Nordhaus

2362: Rational Dialogues

John Geanakoplos and Herakles Polemarchakis

2361: The People and the Experts: Alternative Views on Economic Affairs

William Nordhaus and Douglas Rivers

2360: Affective Interdependence and Welfare

Aviad Heifetz, Enrico Minelli and Herakles Polemarchakis

2359: Managed Campaigns and Data-Augmented Auctions for Digital Advertising

Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti and Nicholas Wu

2358: Influence or Advertise: The Role of Social Learning in Influencer Marketing

Ron Berman, Aniko Oery and Xudong Zheng

2357: Nonparametric Identification of Differentiated Products Demand Using Micro Data

Steven Berry and Philip Haile

2356: The Effect of Education Policy on Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective

Ulrika Ahrsjš, Costas Meghir, MŒrten Palme and Marieke Schnabel

2356: The Effect of Education Policy on Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective

Costas Meghir, Mårten Palme and Marieke Schnabel

2355: Extreme Points of First-Order Stochastic Dominance Intervals: Theory and Applications

Kai Hao Yang and Alexander K. Zentefis

2354: Robust Inference on Correlation under General Heterogeneity

Liudas Giraitis, Yufei Li and Peter Phillips

2353: The Optimality of Constant Mark-Up Pricing

Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann and Stephen Morris

2352: Panel Threshold Regression with Unobserved Individual-Specific Threshold Effects

Ping Yu, Shengjie Hong and Peter Phillips

2351: Unified Factor Model Estimation and Inference under Short and Long Memory

Shuyao Ke, Liangjun Su and Peter Phillips

2350: Robust Testing for Explosive Behavior with Strongly Dependent Errors

Yiu Lim Lui, Jun Yu and Peter Phillips

2349: Rural-Urban Migration and the Re-organization of Agriculture

Raahil Madhok, Frederik Noack and Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

2348: The boosted HP filter is more general than you might think

Ziwei Mei, Zhentao Shi and Peter Phillips

2347: Boosting the HP Filter for Trending Time Series with Long Range Dependence

Eva Biswas, Farzad Sabzikar and Peter Phillips

2344: Order Statistics from Independent Non-Identical Exponentiated and Proportional Hazard Rate Random Variables

JosŽ-Antonio Esp’n-S‡nchez

2344: The Impact of Carbon Taxes on the Value of Fossil-Fuel Reserves and the Efficiency of Climate Policy

William Nordhaus

2344: Eviction and Poverty in American Cities

Robert Collinson, John Humphries, Nicholas Mader, Davin Reed, Daniel Tannenbaum and Winnie van Dijk

2343: Data, Competition, and Digital Platforms

Dirk Bergemann and Alessandro Bonatti

2343: Data, Competition, and Digital Platforms

Dirk Bergemann and Alessandro Bonatti

2342: Climate Change Around the World

Per Krusell and Tony Smith

2341: Dynamic Price Competition: Theory and Evidence from Airline Markets

Aniko …ry, Ali Horta su and Kevin Williams

2341: Dynamic Price Competition: Theory and Evidence from Airline Markets

Aniko …ry, Ali Horta su and Kevin Williams

2340: Why Have Interest Rates Been Low?

Ray C. Fair