An Alternative Reference Scenario for Global CO2Emissions from Fuel Consumption: An ARFIMA Approach

José Belbute and Alfredo Pereira

No 164, Working Papers from Department of Economics, College of William and Mary

Abstract: In this note, we establish an alternative reference scenario based on an ARFIMA estimated using global CO2 emissions from 1750 to 2013. These new reference forecasts are free from additional assumptions on demographic and economic variables, often used in most reference forecasts. Instead, we only rely on the properties of the underlying stochastic process for global CO2 emissions that are, in this sense, closer to fundamentals. Our reference forecasts are clearly below the levels proposed by other reference scenarios available in the literature. This is important, as it suggests that the ongoing policy goals are actually easier to reach than what is implied by the standard reference scenarios. Having lower and more realistic reference emissions projections gives a truer assessment of the policy efforts that are needed, and highlights the lower costs involved in mitigation efforts, thereby maximizing the likelihood of more widespread environmental policy efforts.

Keywords: Forecasting; reference scenario; CO2emissions; fuel; long memory; ARFIMA. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 O13 Q47 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10 pages
Date: 2015-08-31
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Related works:
Journal Article: An alternative reference scenario for global CO2 emissions from fuel consumption: An ARFIMA approach (2015)
Working Paper: An Alternative Reference Scenario for Global CO2Emissions from Fuel Consumption: An ARFIMA Approach (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cwm:wpaper:164

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