HKC10 - Disasters, Labor Migration, and Migrant Downgrading: Evidence from Typhoons in the Philippines

Emir Murathanoglu

No 2607, Oberlin College Kasper Economics and Business Working Papers Series from Oberlin College, Department of Economics

Abstract: I study how typhoons affect international labor migration from Philippine municipalities using administrative data on the universe of new migrant contracts. Typhoons increase out-migration for up to three years, but simultaneously shift migrants toward lower-paying occupations and destinations. Average migrant cohort wages fall by 0.27– 0.41% for each 1% typhoon-induced increase in migration. This fall is not explained by observable selection, as typhoon-induced migrants have higher educational attainment. These patterns are consistent with a simple migration search model, where worsening origin conditions incentivize potential migrants to search and leave for lower-paying overseas contracts. Despite this downgrading, back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest 16–19% of the increase in remittances following typhoons can be attributed to new labor migration.

Keywords: Migration; Labor migration; Natural disasters; Philippines (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J61 J64 O15 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 102 pages
Date: 2026-08-01
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