The Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in a Two Sector Open Economy

Ross Guest () and Anthony Makin

DEGIT Conference Papers from DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade

Abstract: In 2009-10 governments around the world implemented unprecedented fiscal stimulus in order to counter the impact of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. This paper analyses the impact of fiscal stimulus using a dynamic open economy, overlapping generations model that allows for feedback effects of fiscal stimulus on private sector expenditure via changes in the tax rate and the interest rate. There are two types of goods – traded (T) and non-traded (N) goods, which differ in their capital intensities. The main qualitative result is that the dynamic output gains from fiscal stimulus depend on the productivity of the initial stimulus spending, on the speed of repayment of debt, on the sensitivities of the interest rate to government debt and of labour supply to the tax rate. Also, the overlapping generations framework allows an intergenerational welfare analysis. Among the biggest winners from stimulus are those about to retire. The biggest losers are those near the start of their working lives when the stimulus is implemented.

Pages: 27 pages JEL Classification: E1, E2, E6
Date: 2011-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-mac, nep-opm and nep-pbe
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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