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Demographic Change and R&D-based Economic Growth: Reconciling Theory and Evidence

Klaus Prettner () and Timo Trimborn ()

DEGIT Conference Papers from DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade

Abstract: We analyze the effects of demographic change on medium- and long-run economic growth by setting forth an R&D-based growth model including an endogenous demographic structure. The model framework is consistent with the experience of industrialized countries, where declines in mortality are associated with even faster declines in fertility such that population growth slows down. We show that, in response to demographic change, technological progress and economic growth accelerate in the medium run but slow down in the long run. Numerical investigation reveals that the time period during which technological progress and economic growth are faster than without demographic change can be very long. Since the theoretical predictions for the medium run are consistent with the negative association between population growth and economic growth found in the empirical literature, the present framework can reconcile R&D-based growth theory with the available evidence.

Keywords: Demographic change; Technological progress; Economic growth; Semiendogenous growth theory; Transitional dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J13 O30 O41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2012-09
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Working Paper: Demographic change and R&D-based economic growth: Reconciling theory and evidence (2012) Downloads
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