Fertility, Human Development, and Economic Growth: Long- term Short-term Causal Links

Kurt Hafner and David Mayer-Foulkes

DEGIT Conference Papers from DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade

Abstract: Within the causal structure of economic development, we can distinguish between short-term and long-term causal links. In particular, this study examines long-term short-term causal relations in economic development. We construct a balanced panel for 72 countries over the period from 1980 to 2007 and use panel unit-root and cointegration tests to find the causal structure amongst income, human development, demographic transition, technology and infrastructure, institutions and trade. In estimating the long-run relationship between cointegrated variables, we use the dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimation techniques proposed by Kao and Chiang (2000) in order to avoid spurious regression results introducing leads and lags of one or two years. We find that there are long-term short-term causal links between high income, high human development and low fertility all of which we define as the developed lifestyle. We also find that technology and infrastructure, institutions and economic integration have systematic short-term impacts that promote the developed lifestyle, acting as exogenous processes.

Keywords: Long-Term Causality; Economic Growth; Fertility; Human Capital; Nonstationary Panels; Cointegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 J13 O11 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2012-09
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://degit.sam.sdu.dk/papers/degit_17/C017_024.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 500 Can't connect to degit.sam.sdu.dk:80 (No such host is known. )

Related works:
Journal Article: Fertility, economic growth, and human development causal determinants of the developed lifestyle (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:deg:conpap:c017_024

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in DEGIT Conference Papers from DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jan Pedersen ().