Une tentative de mesure du PIB informel dans les pays en transition: une approche macro-économique indirecte

Boris Najman (najman.boris@gmail.com)

DELTA Working Papers from DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure)

Abstract: In this paper we focus our research on Russia and Ukraine, where the official GDP sharply drop between 1991 and 1999. We have there the following apparent paradox: a large GDP decrease (around 50%) and relative employment stability (-13 %). By presenting our estimations of informal (unofficial) GDP we discuss the extent and the nature of the fall in production. We estimate the informal sector between 25 and 35 % of total GDP in Russia and 30 to 50 % in Ukraine. We use different indirect macroeconomic methods in order to measure the shadow economy: essentially macro-electric and monetary (cash-deposit ratio). Since 1991, the share of unofficial GDP in the total GDP has been multiplied by 2 or 3. These results provide part of the explanation of the GDP-employment paradox. Since the Plan disappeared the informal sector partly replaced the formal one, so the official GDP fall should be reconsidered.

Keywords: EMPLOI; PRODUCTION; MACROECONOMIE (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 E23 E24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2000
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:del:abcdef:2000-19

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