Tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios: Assessing the implications of delayed childbearing for cohort fertility in Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain

Hans-Peter Kohler and José Ortega
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Hans-Peter Kohler: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

No WP-2001-035, MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

Abstract: In this paper we apply tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios (Kohler and Ortega 2001) to Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain. These countries represent three distinct demographic patterns in contemporary Europe and are of particular interest for demographers. The goal of our analyses is to (a) describe past fertility trends in these countries in terms of synthetic cohort and (b) project the level and distribution of completed fertility in cohorts who have not finished childbearing. Our analyses suggest that the most recent period fertility patterns in these countries do not imply substantial increases in childlessness even in younger cohorts. Moreover, if these patterns prevail in the future, young cohorts would reach completed fertility levels between 1.5--1.75.

JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 50 pages
Date: 2001
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2001-035

DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2001-035

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