Italy’s path to very low fertility: the adequacy of economic and second demographic transition theories

David K. Kertzer, Michael White, Laura Bernardi and Giuseppe Gabrielli
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Michael White: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Laura Bernardi: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Giuseppe Gabrielli: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

No WP-2006-049, MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

Abstract: The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered.

Keywords: Italy; event history analysis; fertility decline; living space (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2006
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-049

DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-049

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