The increasing importance of economic conditions on fertility
Deniz Karaman Örsal () and
Joshua R. Goldstein
Additional contact information
Joshua R. Goldstein: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
No WP-2010-014, MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
This paper investigates whether there has been a fundamental change in the importance of economic conditions on fertility. Through the 1980s econometric studies had found at best a mixed, neutral or negative effect of economic conditions on fertility. Notably, Butz and Ward (1979) concluded that fertility was counter-cyclical, with fertility falling in good times, as the opportunity costs of childbearing rose. More recently, there have been signs that fluctuations in fertility have been pro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher birth rates, and the recent recession with lower birth rates. In this paper, we use panel methods to study short term changes in aggregate fertility and economic measures in OECD countries from 1976-2008. We find indeed that fertility became positively associated with good economic conditions. Furthermore, the increasing importance of economic conditions was detected for both tempo and quantum.
Keywords: economic conditions; total fertility rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-014
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Peter Wilhelm ().