From dating to marriage: changes in short-term fertility intentions across partnership transitions

Philipp Dierker, Ariane Ophir and Nicole Hiekel
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Philipp Dierker: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Nicole Hiekel: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

No WP-2026-010, MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

Abstract: Objective: This study examines how short-term fertility intentions evolve before and after transitions between relationship stages. Background: Prior research has primarily compared fertility intentions across partnership statuses, while giving less attention to within-person dynamics surrounding partnership transitions and the question of whether shifts reflect anticipatory selection or post-transition changes. Method: Using longitudinal data from the German Family Panel (waves 2008–2022), we apply an event-centered fixed effects design to estimate changes in fertility intentions up to three years before and after transitions to dating, cohabitation, and marriage. Stratified analyses assess variation by gender, age, and subsequent relationship stability. Results: Entry into dating from singlehood is followed by a within-person increase in fertility intentions, indicating that dating functions as a turning point activating fertility planning. Entry into cohabitation is associated with rising intentions prior to the transition and sustained increases thereafter, suggesting that cohabitation consolidates fertility plans. Marriage transitions are characterized by anticipatory increases in fertility intentions. Fertility intentions increase after entry into dating only in relationships that persist, underscoring the role of stability in consolidating early adjustments. Men and older individuals enter marriage with high fertility intentions, while women report higher intentions before cohabitation. Conclusions: Different partnership stages act as distinct mechanisms for the evolution of fertility intentions over the life course. Dating is an activation stage where fertility planning emerges, while cohabitation reinforces and consolidates plans and marriage reflects anticipatory selection.

JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52 pages
Date: 2026
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem and nep-edu
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-010

DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2026-010

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