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Roads and the Spread of AIDS in Africa

Elodie Djemai ()

No DT/2017/16, Working Papers from DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation)

Abstract: We use GIS and HIV data from ve African countries to estimate the e ect of road proximity on HIV infection. We nd a negative e ect of the distance to the nearest paved road on the probability of being infected with HIV: a one standard-deviation rise in the distance (approximately 2.3 kilometers) reduces the probability of infection by 0.34-2.3 percentage points. Using slope as an instrument for road distance continues to produce a negative and signi cant estimated coecient. Alternative instrumental variables include historical routes and hypothetical lines connecting major cities as of 1890-1900. However this relationship may also re ect selection and reverse causality in individual choice of location, and we extensively discuss the role of migration. While the number of lifetime sexual partners is signi cantly in uenced by the presence of roads, in recent years the e ect of road distance in access to protection has disappeared.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS epidemic; infrastructure; geography; risk-taking; Sub-Saharan Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I10 O12 O18 R23 C21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev, nep-geo, nep-hea, nep-tre and nep-ure
Date: 2017-12
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