In pursuit of security: Armed conflict and support for democracy in Mali

Thomas Calvo (), Emmanuelle Lavallée (), Mireille Razafindrakoto () and François Roubaud
Additional contact information
Thomas Calvo: LEDa-DIAL, IRD, CNRS, Universite Paris-Dauphine, Universite PSL, Paris
Emmanuelle Lavallée: LEDa-DIAL, IRD, CNRS, Universite Paris-Dauphine, Universite PSL, 75016 Paris
Mireille Razafindrakoto: LEDa-DIAL, IRD, CNRS, Universite Paris-Dauphine, Universite PSL, Paris

No DT/2026/01, Working Papers from DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation)

Abstract: This paper studies how armed conflict affects public attitudes to democracy. We analyze the role of both experience and fear of violence in support for basic democratic principles and preference for democratic rule in Mali, a country torn by a multi-dimensional conflict since 2012. We combine event location data with sub-nationally representative household survey data including first-hand add-on survey modules on governance, peace and security collected yearly from 2014 to 2019. On the one hand, we find that exposure to violence has a small negative to zero effect on attitudes to democracy. Our results are robust to recent eventstudy approaches as well as to selection into migration. Behind the null effect of violence lie heterogeneities based on the identity of the armed group involved. On the other hand, fear of conflict has strong negative impacts on the public’s commitment to democratic values and support for democracy. Greater support for military rule from fearful individuals is driven by those living in areas not affected by the conflict. In conflict-free areas, citizens are willing to forgo certain freedoms in pursuit of greater security.

Keywords: Armed conflict; Fear; Political attitudes; Support for democracy; Military rule (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D71 D72 D91 F51 O12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 47 pages
Date: 2026-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pol
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://dial.ird.fr/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/202 ... uitofSecurity_WP.pdf First version, 2026 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202601

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Loic Le Pezennec ().