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Vulnerability to climate change and communal conflicts: uncovering pathways

Sara Balestri () and Raul Caruso ()

No dis2103, DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo from Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS)

Abstract: This research work provides new evidence about the effect of vulnerability to natural hazards on the likelihood of communal violence, by disentangling regional-specific pathways. We focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Southern/South-Eastern Asia (S-SEA) for the period 1995-2016, being these regions particularly exposed to climate effects and dominantly characterized by rain-fed and climate-sensitive agriculture. Relying on the ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index as multidimensional measure of propensity of human societies to be negatively impacted by climate change, we found robust evidence that greater vulnerability is conducive to a higher risk of communal violence. This result is consistent across the regions, and it remarks the fragility of SSA where levels of vulnerability are higher than those observed in S-SEA, on average. Overall, results suggest that policy efforts aimed at reducing vulnerability to natural hazards are powerful tools not only to make societies more resilient, but also more peaceful.

JEL-codes: D74 O13 Q54 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dev, nep-env and nep-sea
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