Why Do Migrants Stay Unexpectedly? Misperceptions and Implications for Integration

Marc Kaufmann, Joël Machado and Bertrand Verheyden

No 1215, SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research from DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)

Abstract: Empirical evidence suggests that the majority of immigrants who initially planned a temporary stay end up staying permanently in the host country. Since beliefs about the duration of stay are a strong determinant of integration, many long-term migrants may end up less than optimally integrated. We theoretically model migrants with potential misperceptions about their future utility and wage prospects in the host country relative to their country of origin. We describe conditions under which these misperceptions generate, and conditions on observables that identify, unexpected staying. These conditions involve pessimism about the endogenous long-term wage for which migrants are indifferent between staying and leaving: either they overestimate the probability of earning less than this indifference wage, or they underestimate their utility in the destination country when earning this wage. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we find that higher levels of pessimism about utility and wages at arrival are associated with staying in the long-term in Germany despite having initially predicted a temporary stay.

Keywords: Migrant integration, return intentions, unexpected staying, misperceptions, pessimism; SOEP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D91 F22 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 56 p.
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int, nep-upt and nep-ure
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https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.931721.de/diw_sp1215.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Why do migrants stay unexpectedly? Misperceptions and implications for integration (2025)
Working Paper: Why Do Migrants Stay Unexpectedly? Misperceptions and Implications for Integration (2021)
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