Turnout and Closeness: Evidence from 60 Years of Bavarian Mayoral Elections

Felix Arnold

No 1462, Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research

Abstract: One prediction of the calculus of voting is that electoral closeness positively affects turnout via a higher probability of one vote being decisive. I test this theory with data on all mayoral elections in the German state of Bavaria between 1946 and 2009. Importantly, I use constitutionally prescribed two-round elections to measure electoral closeness and thereby improve on existing work that mostly uses ex- post measures that are prone to endogeneity. The results suggest that electoral closeness matters: A one standard deviation increase in close- ness increases turnout by 1.68 percentage points, which corresponds to 1 6 of a standard deviation in this variable. I also evaluate how other factors like electorate size or rain on election day affect turnout differentially depending on the closeness of the race.

Keywords: Turnout; closeness; mayoral elections; Bavaria; two-round ballot (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 H70 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 p.
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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