Disentangling Covid-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks

Annika Camehl and Malte Rieth ()

No 1954, Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research

Abstract: We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through sign and zero restrictions. Incidence and mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly for two months. Restrictive policy shocks lower mobility immediately, cases after one week, and deaths after three weeks. Non-pharmaceutical interventions explain half of the variation in mobility, cases, and deaths worldwide. These flattened the pandemic curve, while deepening the global mobility recession. The policy tradeoff is 1 p.p. less mobility per day for 9% fewer deaths after two months.

Keywords: Epidemics; general equilibrium; non-pharmaceutical interventions; structural vector autoregressions; coronavirus; Bayesian analysis; panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35, 16 p.
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea, nep-isf and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Disentangling Covid-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks (2021)
Working Paper: Disentangling Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks (2021)
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