US Outlook and German Confidence: Does the Confidence Channel Work?

Gustav Adolf Horn

No 324, Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research

Abstract: One channel of business cycle shock transmission which gained attraction only recently is the confidence channel. The aim of the paper is to find out whether the confidence channel is actually working between the US and Germany. This is analysed using times series methods. In contrast to other studies the direct informational content of leading US indicators for German producer confidence and the significance of asymmetric reactions is tested. The results show that there is a relationship between the respective variables, which has become closer during the nineties. However the hypothesis of asymmetries had to be rejected.

Keywords: Confidence Channel; Business Cycle; Leading Indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 p.
Date: 2003
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.40159.de/dp324.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp324

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Bibliothek ().