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Modelling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine

Boriss Siliverstovs and Olena Bilan

No 476, Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research

Abstract: The paper explores dynamics of inflation in Ukraine in the period of relative macroeconomic stability. The analysis of interrelationship between inflation, money growth, wage growth, and a proxy for devaluation expectations is based on impulse responses and variance decomposition of a vector autoregression model. We find that changes in devaluation expectations appear to be the most important factor driving price development, while money supply growth has negligible impact on inflation. In addition, our results evidence of high degree of inflation inertia in the economy, which may reflect the specific institutional settings of Ukrainian economy.

Keywords: Transition economy; Inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 C32 P24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Journal Article: Modeling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine (2006) Downloads
Working Paper: Modelling Inflation Dynamics in Transition Economies: The Case of Ukraine Downloads
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