Climate Change and Modelling of Extreme Temperatures in Switzerland

Boriss Siliverstovs, Rainald Ötsch, Claudia Kemfert, Carlo Jaeger, Armin Haas and Hans Kremers

No 840, Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research

Abstract: This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.

Keywords: Climate change; GEV; Bayesian modelling; Great Alpine Heat Wave (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 p.
Date: 2008
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-env
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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