Do Credit Supply Shocks Affect Employment in Middle-Income Countries?

Emilio Gutierrez, David Jaume and Martin Tobal

CEDLAS, Working Papers from CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata

Abstract: This paper studies the extent to which increases in bank credit supply available for small and medium firms can foster formal employment in Mexico. We use a detailed dataset containing loan-level information for all loans extended by commercial banks to private firms in Mexico during the 2010-2016 period, when the economy was relatively stable. To obtain exogenous variation in credit supply, we exploit differences in the regional presence of Mexican banks across local labor markets by combining pre-existing market shares with national-level changes in banks’ credit supply, after accounting for local credit demand shocks. Then, we use employment registry data to compare changes in the number of formal workers registered by small and medium firms in local labor markets differently exposed to these shocks. We find that credit supply shocks have a large impact on formal employment: a positive credit shock of one standard deviation increases yearly employment growth by 0.45 percentage points (13 percent of the mean). Our results differ from the null to small effects identified by previous literature for developed countries, suggesting that credit supply shocks play a more prominent role for employment creation (and destruction) in low and middle-income countries.

JEL-codes: D22 D53 G01 G1 G21 J01 J23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 51 pages
Date: 2021-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg, nep-lab and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: Do Credit Supply Shocks Affect Employment in Middle-Income Countries? (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dls:wpaper:0277

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