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Analysing fertility trends through Schmertmann's model: Italy and Sweden compared

Alessandra Carioli

No 4, Working Papers from "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi

Abstract: Using age specific fertility rates of Italian and Swedish women aged between 15 and 49 years old I examine the presence of fertility postponement in period and cohort outputs. Period data consist of standard five-year age group rates ranging from 1960 to 2005. Cohort data are arranged on age specific year groups born between years 1930-1970. The method used in this work is based upon quadratic spline interpolation procedure, developed by Carl P. Schmertmann (2003), in which three index ages determine the schedules shape. The recent fertility postponing behavior is investigated through the help of five index ages, which show the dynamics of postponement both in cohort and period data.

Keywords: Second Demographic Transition; fertility trends; postponement; quadratic spline interpolation; Italy; Sweden (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2008-07
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