Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions

Francesco Billari, Rebecca Graziani and Eugenio Mellili

No 33, Working Papers from "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi

Abstract: We develop a method for the derivation of expert-based stochastic population forecasts. The full probability distribution of forecasts is specified by expert opinions on future developments, elicited conditional on the realization of high, central, low scenarios. The procedure is applied to forecast the Italian population, using scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office (ISTAT) and the Statistical Office of the European Union (EUROSTAT).

Keywords: stochastic population forecasting; random scenario; conditional expert opinions; Italian population forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2010-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
ftp://ftp.dondena.unibocconi.it/WorkingPapers/Dondena_WP033.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 500 Failed to connect to FTP server ftp.dondena.unibocconi.it: No such host is known.

Related works:
Journal Article: Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions (2012)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:don:donwpa:033

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.dondena.unibocconi.it/wp/

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi via Rontgen, 1 - 20136 Milano.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Amy Johnson ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).