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Who will go down this year ? The Determinants of Promotion and Relegation in European Soccer Leagues

Jean-Baptiste Dherbecourt and Bastien Drut ()

No 2009-40, EconomiX Working Papers from University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX

Abstract: Contributing to the lively debate on closed leagues (North American model) versus open leagues (European model) in professional sport league, this paper aims at determining the drivers of promotion and relegation in the major European soccer leagues. Using a large and original dataset (for example: club’s link with a billionaire, club listed in the stock market, etc.) and logistic regressions, our results show that institutional factors matter to settle in the elite. It also indicates that open leagues system in European soccer championships is de facto very similar to closed leagues system. Furthermore, our forecasting model can be of interest for soccer investors or bookmakers.

Keywords: Economics of Sport; Organization of Sports Leagues; Soccer; Promotion and Relegation; Economic Forecasting; Regional Economy; Billionaires; Stock Market. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 R11 R58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2009
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-spo
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