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On the relationship between forward energy prices: a panel data cointegration approach

Marc Joëts

No 2010-21, EconomiX Working Papers from University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the long-term relationship between the forward prices of crude oil and domestic fuel (FOD) on the period from August 2003 to April 2010. To this end, we rely on a panel data setting by considering a sample of 36 maturities for the forward prices. Using panel cointegration tests, our results show that oil and fuel prices are characterized by a strong homogeneous long-term equilibrium relationship for several maturities. Estimating a panel error correction model, we find that FOD prices are influenced by oil prices variations on both the short and the long run. The existence of a unique equilibrium model for all maturities may have important implications for financial arbitrage strategies based on energy prices relationships.

Keywords: forward energy prices; oil; domestic fuel; panel cointegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 Q40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 8 pages
Date: 2010
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
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