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Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedging Strategy for the US Ethanol Market

Emmanuel Hache () and Anthony Paris ()

No 2018-6, EconomiX Working Papers from University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the ethanol price dynamics in the US market and find the optimal hedging strategy. To this end, we first attempt to identify the long-term relationship between ethanol spot prices and the prices of futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Then, we model the short-term dynamics between these two prices using a Markov-switching vector error correction model (Ms-VECM). Finally, accounting for the variance dynamics using a Gjr-MGarch error structure, we compute a time-varying hedge ratio and determine the optimal hedging strategy in the US ethanol market.

Keywords: Ethanol prices; Futures markets; Markov-switching regime models; Hedge ratio (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q41 Q42 G15 C41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2018
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
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