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Walking the tightrope: avoiding a lockdown while containing the virus

Balázs Égert, Yvan Guillemette, Fabrice Murtin () and David Turner

No 2021-1, EconomiX Working Papers from University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX

Abstract: Empirical work described in this paper explains the daily evolution of the reproduction rate, R, and mobility for a large sample of countries, in terms of containment and public health policies. This is with a view to providing insight into the appropriate policy stance as countries prepare for a potentially protracted period characterised by new infection waves. While a comprehensive package of containment measures may be necessary when the virus is widespread and can have a large effect on reducing R, they also have effect on mobility and, by extension, economic activity. A wide-ranging package of public health policies – with an emphasis on comprehensive testing, tracing and isolation, but also including mask-wearing and policies directed at vulnerable groups, especially those in care homes – offer the best approach to avoiding a full lockdown while containing the spread of the virus. Such policies may, however, need to be complemented by selective containment measures (such as restricting large public events and international travel or localised lockdowns) both to contain local outbreaks and because implementing some of the recommended public health policies may be difficult to achieve or have unacceptable social costs.

Keywords: Covid-19; lockdown; non-pharmaceutical interventions; mobility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C50 H10 H12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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https://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2021/WP_EcoX_2021-1.pdf (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: Walking the Tightrope: Avoiding a Lockdown While Containing the Virus (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Walking the tightrope: avoiding a lockdown while containing the virus (2020) Downloads
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